Sheriff Tommie Johnson Holds Commanding Lead
Sooner Survey: Volume 35 No. 7 | September 10, 2024
By Pat McFerron, President
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associate
@McFerron
A quick look at presidential election results in 2020 shows just how unique Oklahoma County has been. Only 4 counties in America with populations of at least 800,000 people had even a plurality voting for Donald Trump in 2020. Two of these (Tarrant and Collin) counties are from the Dallas area metroplex and the other is Suffolk County on Long Island in New York. And in Tarrant and Oklahoma counties, it was just a plurality, not a majority. As Oklahoma County continues to grow, it begs the question, can Republican presidential nominees still expect to win here?
In 2024, the answer is a definitive “Maybe”. Our latest poll shows Trump and Harris tied at 45% with 4% going to other candidates whose name will appear on the ballot and 6% being undecided. Given this tight race, we can expect results similar to what was seen in 2020.
While one or the other of the major party nominees will win the county, the reality is, at least half of the voters in the state’s most populous county will not like the person selected. Both Donald Trump (46% Favorable / 50% Unfavorable) and Kamala Harris (44% Favorable / 52% Unfavorable) have more county voters holding a negative opinion than a positive. In a bit of an oddity, Harris does a better job of uniting Republicans (11% Favorable / 84% Unfavorable) than does Trump (76% Favorable / 20% Unfavorable) and Trump is a bit better at uniting Democrats (13% Favorable / 84% Unfavorable) than is Harris (80% Favorable / 15% Unfavorable). While both camps undoubtedly have their advocates, the contest will really come down to how those who dislike both of them ultimately vote.
When taking the county outside of the national environment, we do see a bit of a different picture. In Oklahoma County, a bare majority of voters think the county is headed in the right direction – a marked improvement from the mid-30s we see statewide. And, when asked about the most important issue facing the county, we tend to see local issues like schools, homelessness, infrastructure, and the county Jail being more prevalent than more national issues like inflation, immigration, or abortion – though the last three certainly are on the minds of voters.
While the presidential contest will be close in the county, it may well be an anomaly, due in part to the conservative leanings of the county. When voters in the county self-select their ideology, 42% claim the conservative label while only 18% adopt that of liberal. While not quite as a conservative as we see statewide (and much less than we see in rural Oklahoma), this is still a sizeable advantage that is really revealed in that 27% say they are “very conservative” – four times as many as who say they are “very liberal”. This ideological advantage appears to help Republicans – at least those not named Trump. In the high-profile race for county sheriff, Republican Tommie Johnson currently holds a commanding 22-point lead over Democrat Wayland Cubit (51% Johnson; 29% Cubit). Not only does Johnson have great appeal to the conservatives, but he is more than competitive among moderates as well (44% Johnson; 36% Cubit). Furthermore, while Johnson unites Republicans (77% Johnson; 6% Cubit), he also has a 10-point lead among Independents (41% Johnson; 31% Cubit) and – perhaps most shocking in this day of hyper partisanship – garners 22% of the vote among registered Democrats while holding Cubit to 58% among members of his own party. Put another way, Johnson wins Republicans by 71 points, but Cubit only wins Democrats by 36 points, or roughly half of Johnson’s margin.
Tommie Johnson does have far superior name recognition than does Cubit. Johnson is viewed favorably among Republicans (42% Favorable / 3% Unfavorable), Independents (22% Favorable / 7% Unfavorable) and even registered Democrats (23% Favorable / 11% Unfavorable). Johnson does well across the county and is particularly strong among the important voting bloc of those over 65 years of age (33% Favorable / 2% Unfavorable).
Wayland Cubit is largely unknown to voters. His soft name ID is only 22%, a full 30 points below the 52% enjoyed by Johnson. While Johnson’s favorability ratio approaches 5-to-1 positive, Cubits is just over two-to-one (9% Favorable / 4% Unfavorable). The only place Cubit is known is among self-described liberals (21% Favorable / 7% Unfavorable). Among the more than twice as large group of conservatives, Cubit is not relevant at this time (1% Favorable / 3% Unfavorable).
While it is easy to see that Oklahoma County is not as reliably Republican as it once was, it would be premature to categorize it as a Democrat county at this point. The presidential contest will likely make it seem more Democrat than it actually is. A better barometer will be how it votes in down ballot contests. In the recent past, these have still been solidly Republican – whether it is in the special election for County Clerk won by Maressa Treat in 2023, or the 2022 races for Lt. Governor, State Treasurer, and Corporation Commissioner each won by the Republican by roughly five percentage points. ◊
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