Sooner Survey: Volume 37 No. 3 | February 17, 2026
By Pat McFerron, President
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associate
@McFerron
While recent campaign finance reports show Jon Echols with almost one million dollars cash-on-hand (which is 33% more money to spend than his opponent Jeff Starling), this is not the only clear advantage Echols has heading into the final four months of the campaign. Echols also starts with a 15-point advantage (35% Echols; 20% Starling) and even stronger leads among key conservative elements.
Since our last study of this race in November of 2025, Echols has increased his lead from 11 points to 15. Echols has a much wider lead in the dominant Oklahoma City media market (38%-16%), but the race is more competitive in Tulsa (31%-26%). Among the most active primary voters, Echols lead widens to 17 points and he almost doubles the support achieved by Starling (36% Echols; 19% Starling) among those who have voted in each of the five most recent Republican primaries.
For the Attorney General, the state’s top law enforcement official, Echols is also well-positioned as he has a two-to-one lead (36% – 18%) among the 20% of primary voters saying crime and public safety issues like supporting police and immigration are their most important issues when voting. Among the important group of liberty issue voters (12% overall, but higher among the best primary voters) Echols lead is 21-points (34% Echols; 13% Starling).
Echols’ anchor on the right is also evident in that his lead among the 9% of voters using Truth Social gives him among his best numbers (40% Echols vs. 22% Starling) and the now right-leaning X (37% Echols; 21% Starling).
Starling is not without his supporters. Among those earning more than $200,000 a year, the contest is tied (35% Echols; 35% Starling), but Echols dominates among the larger cluster (36% of primary voters of middle-income Republicans earning between $75,000 and $150,000 a year (42% Echols vs. 20% Starling). Similarly, Starling is competitive among the 20% or GOP primary voters who self-identify as moderates (34% Echols; 28% Starling), but trails among conservatives by 16 (34% Echols; 18% Starling).
At this time, these two are the only Republican candidates to file any paperwork, so this race will likely be decided in June. Given his lead in fundraising and polling – especially among the conservative elements that most reliably show-up at the polls – Echols has to be considered a clear favorite.◊
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