Tight Three-Way Race for Second
Sooner Survey: Volume 37 No. 1 | February 9, 2026
By Pat McFerron, President
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associate
@McFerron
With recent reports about the sheer amount of money individual candidates are putting into their respective campaigns for governor, it is no surprise that Oklahoma Republicans are becoming interested in the campaigns, and more than 80% of primary voters have already picked a candidate that they are at least leaning toward.
Gentner Drummond remains the clear frontrunner. The choice of 36% of Oklahoma Republican primary voters, Drummond’s percentage is largely unchanged since last November, but is down off his higher numbers prior to advertising from other candidates. Drummond’s early campaign does seem to still be yielding dividends as he does a bit better among the most frequent primary voters, hitting 38% among those who have voted in at least three of the past five primaries.
If you combine the totals of the next three candidates, you only barely get over Drummond’s current total. Charles McCall (14%), Mike Mazzei (13%), and Chip Keating (13%) are in a statistical tie for second and will likely have to continue to compete against each other in an effort to face Drummond in a runoff. Former State Senator Jake Merrick also has his proponents, but they currently account for only 5% of Republican primary voters.
Charles McCall has seen his market share drop back to where he was prior to the “Banana”
commercial exchange (14%). McCall does have a bit of a base, hitting 20% in the rural southeast and 23% among those earning more than $200,000 a year. Still, there is no significant group where McCall leads.
Mazzei, who has had the most significant television buy over the past few weeks, has added 10-points to his position since November. Mazzei’s strength is metro Tulsa where he hits 16% and among those who watch Fox News two or more hours per day (well behind Drummond’s 34% there). It is clear that Mazzei’s property tax message is resonating. In fact, among those voting for Mazzei, 27% mention property taxes specifically (13%) or taxation in general (14%) as their most important issue for the next governor to work on. For those voting for McCall, only 12% cite these topics, while 11% of Drummond voters and 10% Keating voters do so.
Chip Keating has also seen his numbers improve, but not to the same degree as Mazzei’s. In November, Keating sat at 9% and today he is at 13%. He does better in rural counties (14%) and those in households earning more than $150,000 a year (16%). Among FoxNews viewers, Keating does very poorly – only at 4% among those watching more than two hours a day (trailing even Jake Merrick’s 5%), and is only at 9% among those watching one to two hours a day.
The contrast (or for those outside of the business, “negative”) campaigns started very early. What we have seen so far is that Drummond has taken a hit and continues to hold the top spot, while the candidates who are gaining – at least at this time – have not spent substantial money attacking their opponents. The question becomes is how much more can Mazzei or Keating move without getting hit in paid advertising like the Drummond and McCall campaigns have already endured.◊
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