Despite late entry, Shannon Clear Frontrunner
Sooner Survey: Volume 37 No. 2 | February 12, 2026
By Pat McFerron, President
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associate
@McFerron
In our continuing release of Republican primary voting numbers, we have new entrant T.W. Shannon shooting to the forefront, capturing 39% in a five-way contest, State Auditor Cindy Byrd by 16-points. More than a quarter of voters remain undecided (27%) while the three incumbent legislators running for the office are in the single-digits.
Shannon’s lead is based on two key factors: first he is much better known than Byrd, and second, he has secured a solid bloc among the more conservative and active elements of the primary electorate.
After his time as Speaker, two statewide campaigns, and work in the Trump administration, Shannon starts with a very high name identification of 68%. This increases to 75% among those who have voted in at least four of the last five Republican primary elections. This compares to Cindy Byrd’s name ID of 50% among all voters and 55% among the four plus primary voters.
Overall, Shannon has good favorability numbers (34% Favorable / 10% Unfavorable) but that does not tell the full story. Shannon’s strength is that he does exceptionally well among core constituencies: Trump Republicans (43% Favorable / 6% Unfavorable); those watching Fox News at least two hours a day (46% Favorable / 5% Unfavorable); and self-described “very conservative” voters (40% Favorable / 8% Unfavorable) a group that comprises 54% of all primary voters.
In contrast, Byrd’s overall hard name ID of 21% Favorable vs. 8% Unfavorable is less than a three-to-one ratio, and her strength comes from moderates (35% Favorable / 7% Unfavorable), a group that is only 20% of the primary electorate.
At 39%, Shannon garners more than 53% of the 73% of voters who have decided. And it is not like those undecided voters will break against him as 90% of those voters do not hold an opinion about Shannon (5% Favorable / 5% Unfavorable). Gender does look to be playing some role in this contest. Among Republican men, Shannon has a better than two-to-one advantage (41% Shannon vs. 20% Byrd) but among women, Shannon’s lead drops to ten points (37% Shannon vs. 27% Byrd).
On the ballot test, we see Shannon dominating among key groups like very conservative voters (47% Shannon; 17% Byrd; 26% Undecided), Trump Republicans (49% Shannon; 12% Byrd), the most active Fox News viewers (51% Shannon; 9% Byrd) and those who have a favorable impression of the President (44% Shannon; 17% Byrd).
Byrd does lead among moderates (43% Byrd; 28% Shannon) and the 18% of Republicans who dislike Trump (52% Byrd; 21% Shannon), but this is simply not a winning coalition in an Oklahoma Republican primary.
Shannon’s lead is not just ideological, however. He does have a real base in the rural west, hitting 52% on the ballot in the southwest around his hometown of Lawton and 46% in the rural northwest. It is more competitive in Byrd’s home area of the rural southeast, but even there Shannon leads by double digits (35% Shannon; 24% Byrd; 8% Humphrey).
As for the other candidates, at this time they are not registering on the ballot test, but this is likely not a surprise given their lack of statewide presence or spending of campaign funds. Representative Humphrey currently sits at 6% on the ballot test, with his strongest numbers coming in the second congressional district (8%) and liberty issue voters (10%). Senator Darrell Weaver is at 3% and does do a bit better in the Lawton media market (6%) where he was raised; and Representative Brian Hill is at 2%.
Should Trump’s positive connection to Shannon become a factor, this contest will likely be over. President Trump is beloved by Oklahoma Republicans. Not only do 81% of Oklahoma Republicans have a favorable impression of him, but 64% say their opinion is “strongly favorable.” Furthermore, 38% of primary voters label themselves as being “Trump Republicans” and among the 54% who prefer the title of “Traditional Republican” 68% hold a favorable impression of Trump.
The contest is just four months away, and absent millions of dollars (and maybe more depending on how TV rates are affected by spending in the governor’s race) it is going to be very difficult for any candidate to mount a serious challenge to Shannon’s position.◊
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