Geographic, Gender, and Income Differences Are Increasing

Volume 33 No. 1 | January 19th, 2021

By Pat McFerron, President
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associate
@McFerron

       While many national polls show President Trump’s favorability numbers falling, he remains popular in Oklahoma though he has seen a slight slide since his high-water mark of last May. In fact, Trump is so popular among Republicans that 74% want him to remain a leader in the party, 80% would at least consider voting for him in a future presidential primary and 53% say they would vote for him in such a contest.

       Fully 80% of the state’s Republicans have a favorable impression of the president and only 17% hold a contrary view. This is down from his top marks last May (88% favorable / 10% unfavorable). Also of note is that Trump has a greater percentage of Democrat supporters (27% favorable / 68% unfavorable) than he does Republican detractors.
The urban / rural divide continues to grow when it comes to Trump.  In the six metro counties we use (comprising just over half of the state’s voters) Trump is narrowly upside down (46% favorable / 49% unfavorable) but is better than a two-to-one positive in the other 71 counties combined (65% favorable / 31% unfavorable).  In Oklahoma, Trump maintains majority support from both genders, but his margin is significantly different. While he is a +24 among men he is only a +6 among women. In May, his best numbers, he had a gap, but it was not as wide (+34 among men, +26 among women).

       Not only is Trump popular, but a majority of all voters (50%) and 74% of registered Republicans say they support Trump and want him to stay involved and lead the Republican Party. Fully 35% of Oklahoma voters say they never supported Trump and are glad to see him go while another 14% say they are supporters but are glad to see him go. Only 10% of Republicans are “Never Trumpers.”

       At least today, Republican voters are saying their support for Trump will extend into the future. More than half of Oklahoma Republicans (53%) say they will vote for Trump in a presidential primary if he runs in 2024. Another 23% say they would consider voting for him while only 20% say they would not support him. We do see significant differences between those Republicans living in metro areas (44% Will Vote For Trump; 27% Vote Against) and in the rural counties (62% Will Vote for Trump; 13% Vote Against). Similarly, we see support dip among Republicans in households with incomes in excess of $100,000 where Trump gets a commitment from 38% but 24% say they would vote against him.

       Republicans are even more united in their opposition to impeaching Trump. Fully 84% of Republicans – and 88% of Republicans with a history of voting in a primary – oppose impeaching Trump. They are joined by more than a third of the state’s Democrats. All totaled, 61% of Oklahomans oppose impeachment and just a third (34%) support it. Even in urban Oklahoma a majority opposes impeachment (42% Favor / 54% Oppose). The rural areas are much more united with just over a quarter supporting impeachment. Perhaps more interesting is that 56% of all voters and 79% of Republicans say they “strongly oppose” impeachment.

       With national Democrats starting the new administration with impeachment on their mind, we can likely expect Joe Biden’s numbers to deteriorate as well – and they already start low in the Sooner State. Currently 60% of Oklahomans have an unfavorable impression of the incoming president and only 35% have a favorable impression of him. Biden actually unites Republicans (9% favorable / 86% unfavorable) more than Trump does. Even in the urban areas, Biden is a 9-point negative. This is why even an unpopular Trump was still able to carry every county in the past election.

       While there is no doubt that Donald Trump has developed a following based on his persona, the reality is an historical look at Oklahomans attitudes toward presidents shows very little change this century. Aside from a post-911 spike for President George W. Bush that lasted through 2002, our state has generally seen a third of voters supporting Democrat incumbents or opposing Republican ones and roughly 60% supporting Republicans and close to that same number opposing Democrats. While many want to paint Oklahoma’s current dynamics as being Trump driven, that is simply not the case: It is partisan and ideological. Oklahomans remain conservative and as they see national political figures, they continue to identify with Republicans. For Republicans in the Sooner State, electoral prospects under Biden look to be similar to those seen during the Obama administration. The reality is, the more things change, the more they stay the same.

Now I want to read you a list of names. For each one, please tell me first if you have heard of the person, then if so, please tell me if you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of that person. (After response, ask: Would you say your impression is strongly (favorable / unfavorable) or only somewhat (favorable / unfavorable)? (Randomize Names)

3. Which of these statements comes closest to your beliefs about Donald Trump?
35% I have generally opposed Donald Trump and am glad to see him go.
14% I have generally supported Donald Trump, but think it is time for him to leave politics.
50% I have generally supported Donald Trump and hope he continues to be a leader in the Republican Party.
2% (Do not read) Undecided

4. (Skip if not registered Republican) Which of the following best describes what you think about Donald Trump and the 2024 race for President. (Rotate top to bottom / bottom to top)
53% I hope he runs and would vote for him in the Republican Primary
23% If he runs I would consider voting for him depending on the other candidates
20% I would not vote for Donald Trump in the Republican Primary
3% (Do not read) Undecided

5. Do you favor or oppose congress impeaching Donald Trump for his involvement in the actions in Washington D.C. last week? (After response, ask:) Would you say you strongly (favor / oppose) or only somewhat (favor / oppose) impeaching Donald Trump?
32% Strongly Favor
2% Somewhat Favor
5% Somewhat Oppose
56% Strongly Oppose
5% (Do not read) Undecided

This edition of Sooner Survey was conducted January 12 17, 2021. The study of 500 registered voters in Oklahoma were collected by live agents on mobile (38%) and landline (37%) telephones
and through our text to web CAWI system (24%). The confidence interval associated with this sample is that 95% of the time the results are within 4.3% of the true values.