CRT Spells Trouble for Democrat Candidates
Sooner Survey: Volume 33 No. 6 | August 20, 2021
By Pat McFerron, President
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associate
@McFerron
Fully 82% of Oklahoma voters have some level of awareness of “Critical Race Theory, also known as CRT” and among that 82%, almost twice as many oppose (58%) it being taught in public schools than support it (30%). Furthermore, when CRT is explained in a way used in a national study, only 19% of all Oklahomans think it should be taught in our elementary schools.
The awareness level of CRT is very high. For comparison, our most recent study shows that only 48% of voters are aware of the landmark McGirt decision in the state, so 82% shows how pervasive this topic has become among Oklahoma voters. The partisan awareness difference is rather minor (81% among Republicans, 78% among Democrats). Even the variances in level of awareness are rather small with 22% of Republicans and 20% of Democrats saying they “know a great deal” about CRT. We do see the most affluent voters (those in households with annual incomes in excess of $100,000) (89% Familiar; 31% Know a Great Deal) and those under 45 years of age (88% Familiar; 26% Know a Great Deal) expressing greater knowledge than do their counterparts. Among those with household incomes less than $50,000 a year, only 12% say they know a great deal and only 17% of those over the age of 65 say they know a great deal about CRT.
Fully 79% of the Republicans who claim awareness of CRT are opposed to it being taught in schools – almost eight times as many who support it being in the curriculum (10%). We see a different picture among Democrats aware of CRT, 55% supporting it be taught and 31% opposing doing so. This issue could be especially tough for Democrat candidates for office as among those with a history of voting in Democrat primaries are even more supportive of it being taught (57%) twice as many as oppose it. This creates a situation where a primary candidate likely needs to vocalize a position opposite of that held by all but the most left-of-center general electorates.
Those living outside the two great metro areas are adamantly opposed to teaching CRT (20% Should be Taught / 69% Should Not be Taught) while we see urban areas leaning against it being a part of the curriculum (38% Should be Taught / 48% Should Not be Taught). Voters identifying with a race other than Caucasian are only slightly supportive of it being taught (48% Should be Taught / 42% Should Not be Taught), while whites break against it being in classrooms by more than a three-to-one margin (20% Should be Taught / 69% Should Not be Taught).
The more a voter knows about CRT, the more they tend to be opposed to having it taught. Among the 22% saying they know a great deal, less than a third want it taught (32%) while two thirds oppose (66%). The ratio stays almost the same among the 36% who say they know the basic concepts (30% Should be Taught vs. 60% Should Not be Taught) while among the 22% who say they have heard about it but do not know much, 27% want it taught and 46% oppose. This line is an indication that as CRT becomes better known, opposition to it will likely increase.
In an effort to compare Oklahoma to the nation – and quite frankly to avoid writing a question that there is no doubt advocates on one side or the other would criticize – I replicated a question from a national survey conducted by Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll that includes former Bill Clinton pollster Mark Penn as Co-Director. This question asks if kids in elementary school should be taught that America is structurally racists and dominated by white supremacy. In the national poll, 39% believe this should be taught. In Oklahoma, it is only 19%.
While most political observers would expect Republicans to almost universally decry teaching elementary students that America is structurally racists and dominated by white supremacy, they might be surprised to see that more than half of the state’s Democrats also oppose this practice (37% Should be Taught; 54% Should not be Taught). Granted, Democrat opposition does pale in comparison to the 89% of Republicans who oppose it. Clearly, there are a great number of Democrats who support teaching CRT, but do not support teaching that America is structurally racist. The real battle for Democrats will be in how CRT is ultimately defined. If CRT is defined as teaching about historical racism and events it is supported by a majority of Democrats. If, however, it is taken to mean teaching about inherent structural issues and white supremacy, we see a much different picture.
It should also be noted voters identifying as members of an ethnic or racial minority also oppose teaching that America is structurally racist (34% Should be Taught / 61% Should Not be Taught). As CRT becomes better known, it will likely receive even less support. Among the 18% of voters who at the start of the survey said they had never heard of CRT, only 16% support teaching that America is structurally racist – this compares to 24% among the 22% who say they know a great deal. While this is still a low percentage, it does reveal that those aware of CRT are slightly more supportive of it than is the population is as a whole.
It is of interest that these questions were asked in the same study that yielded our previous release related to government prohibiting employers from instituting vaccine mandates. While Covid issues can put Republicans in a box – that is at times the primary and general election constituencies look much different – CRT takes that to a different level for Democrats. On CRT we see the most intense Democrat primary voters being very supportive of CRT promotion and this puts the candidate who can win the primary at odds with the vast majority of general election voters. Because of this, I expect politically astute Democrats to continue pushing the envelope on government reaction to Covid and trying to keep the focus on that issue as a way to deflect conversations on CRT. Republicans with a goal to win elections would be wise to focus on stopping CRT instead of rallying on issues that divide the Republican base. ◊
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