Byrd Enters as Frontrunner

State Auditor has Better Name ID than Incumbent Treasurer

By Pat McFerron, President Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates @McFerron

In one of the biggest surprises of the filing period, term-limited State Auditor and Inspector Cindy Byrd jumped streams and abandoned her candidacy for Lt. Governor (See our May 4, 2026 edition to read about T.W. Shannon’s dominance in that contest.) to run for State Treasurer, the only 2026 statewide featuring an incumbent running for reelection. This appears to have been a very wise electoral move for Byrd as, out of the gate, she leads incumbent Todd Russ by 17 points (Byrd 39%; Russ 22%).

Byrd’s lead is largely based on name identification. Despite Russ being featured in commercials for the state’s 529 program and unclaimed property funds, among Republicans, only 9% of Republican primary voters have a favorable impression of him, while 6% are negative. The big number is that 70% say they have never heard the name Todd Russ. In contrast, Cindy Byrd has a hard name ID of 33% (23% Favorable / 10% Unfavorable) and only 42% say they have not heard her name.

While some expressed concern Byrd’s mid-campaign switch would damage her, that is clearly not the case. In January she was a 21% Favorable / 8% Unfavorable, and that is virtually the same today.

Byrd not only has a real base in her home area of the southeast part of the state (32% Favorable / 5% Unfavorable) but she also does well in the expensive OKC media market (26% Favorable / 13% Unfavorable), a place where Russ barely breaks even (11% Favorable / 9% Unfavorable).

While Byrd leads among most every group, the contest is a bit closer among the most conservative elements of the electorate. For example, among the 18% watching Newsmax on a regular basis, her lead drops to six points (29% Byrd; 23% Russ) but among the 41% watching Fox News Channel, her lead is steady at 18 points (Byrd 38%, Russ 20%). We see the same dynamic with Traditional Republicans where Byrd dominates (43% Byrd vs. 17% Russ) but a closer race among those identifying as Trump Republicans (33% Byrd; 28% Russ).

While Byrd has a strong lead and substantially more campaign funds at her disposal, 39% of voters are still undecided. Russ has proven to be a viable candidate in the past, having won this seat despite being outspent in 2022. That being said, Byrd has to be considered the clear favorite: She is better known and better liked; she was not damaged by changing contests; she has more campaign funds at her disposal; and finally, it will be difficult for down ballot candidates to change current trajectories given the amount of campaign advertising being done up ballot. Candidates for these offices are not just competing against their contest specific opponents but also battling for the attention of voters against the myriad of other races out there.