Shannon Outdistancing Field

Shannon Holds a 35-point Lead over Nearest Competitor

By Pat McFerron, President Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates @McFerron

Former Speaker of the Oklahoma House, Trump administration official, and two-time statewide candidate T.W. Shannon is in a very strong position to secure the Republican nomination for Lieutenant Governor, and become the state’s next L.G.

Sitting at 42% with State Representative Justin JJ Humphrey at 7%, Shannon is simply dominating what would be considered a formidable field in other circumstances. In third place at 6% is State Senator Darrell Weaver who has brought in more than half a million dollars to his account. New entrant, businessman and Stitt administration official David Ostrowe who has now launched television commercials is at 2%.

Shannon’s lead is even more commanding among key parts of the primary electorate and those that tend to be the best predictors. Among Republicans with household incomes in excess of $200,000 a year, Shannon is at a remarkable 59%. Among those who have voted in each of the last five primaries, Shannon’s total expands to 46%, 38 points ahead of Darrell Weaver who is in second among this important group.

Shannon does a great deal to unite the party. He appeals almost equally well to those identifying as Trump Republicans and Traditional Republicans. He garners 48% of the vote from those who have a favorable impression of Governor Stitt and 36% among those Republicans negative toward him.

Shannon has had a lead for quite some time and was the immediate favorite, even when State Auditor Cindy Byrd was still in the contest (stand-by for our release on the State Treasurer contest later this week). Our January study showed Shannon garnering 39% of the vote with Byrd at 23%, Humphrey at 6% and Weaver at 3%. Shannon has taken as much advantage of Byrd’s departure as any candidate.

It is also clear from the data that Shannon is not finished growing. Fully 37% of Republicans with a favorable impression of Trump have yet to decide whom to support, and Shannon, who has been endorsed by Trump, would need just a handful of those voters to break 50% — certainly something that looks probable. ◊