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Drummond and Mazzei Tied at 44%

Sooner Survey: Volume 37 No. 9 | August 11, 2026

By Pat McFerron, President
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associate
@McFerron

Oklahoma’s Republican runoff election for Governor is currently as tight as it can be.  Our recent study (completed August 6, 2026) of 600 Likely Voters has the contest a dead-heat with Gentner Drummond and Mike Mazzei both drawing support from 44% of likely runoff voters.  If one were to take out “leaners” (those asked to make a choice after initially saying they were still undecided), Drummond would have a two point lead (42% Drummond; 40% Mazzei).

Drummond has a seven-point lead among women, while Mazzei leads by six among men.  The rural counties opt for Mazzei by three, but Drummond currently wins the two big metro areas by three.

Clearly, Donald Trump is helping to define this contest.  The biggest difference in support is from the 38% of voters who identify themselves at Trump Republicans and the 56% who prefer the label of “Traditional” Republican.  The Trump Republicans break strongly for Mazzei (22% Drummond vs. 62% Mazzei), but Drummond leads the larger group of Traditional Republicans by a two-to-one margin (60% Drummond vs. 30% Mazzei).

It is important to note that being a Traditional Republican does not make someone anti-Trump.  While clearly damaged by his endorsement of Jackson Lahmeyer in Tulsa and likely his support for the unpopular Inola smelter, Trump’s numbers have declined in the state but are still very strong among Republicans (74% Favorable vs. 23% Unfavorable).  In fact, the key swing group in the state’s runoff elections are likely the 32% of Republicans who have a favorable impression of Donald Trump while self-identifying as a Traditional Republican.  Currently, this group reflects the full group of likely voters with 44% supporting Drummond and 44% committing to Mazzei.

We were fortunate to be in the field during the Griffin Communications gubernatorial debate.  Roughly a quarter of our interviews (149 of the 600) were conducted prior to the debate.  These voters broke toward Mike Mazzei by four points, but among the 451 collected Tuesday through Thursday, Drummond led by one.  I seldom see debates shift sentiment, but this five point swing demonstrates that something did occur.

Not only is the ballot-test tied, but the favorable ratings of the two candidates are very similar – and for the first time in months, Drummond has a slight advantage (45% Favorable / 38% Unfavorable) over Mike Mazzei (41% Favorable / 38% Unfavorable).◊

 

 

 

 

 


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