School Chief Race Wide Open

Sooner Survey: Volume 37 No. 8 | May 14, 2026

By Pat McFerron, President
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associate
@McFerron

I have to admit, I have been hesitant to release these numbers because what they tell us is that voters are NOT yet engaged in this contest.  There is simply not a great deal of insight into the state of the race other than that one statement.  Not a single candidate is in double-digits at this time and a remarkable 61% say they are undecided.

One demonstration of how wide open this contest is that Debra Herlihy – unknown to even the most politically active insiders – sits tied for third at 6% and actually leads among women (8%).  The most prominent and likely explanation for her support is that her first name of Debra is the only name that is generally exclusively used for females (especially on the phone, Toni can come across as a male name).

That being said, there are a few nuggets in the internals – though all are well within any margin of error.  Adam Pugh reaches double digits in the metro areas and has a real base in central Oklahoma (17% Pugh, no other candidate over 8%).  John Cox tends to do better in the rural areas of the state where he hits 10% and does particularly well in the rural northeast where his 13% doubles any competitors.  Toni Hassenbeck does have a base in the southwest (14%) but Cox is also competitive there (12%).  Perennial congressional candidate James Taylor hits 7% in CD 4 where he has run multiple times, and Ron Franklin hits 9% among self-described “Traditional Republicans.”  All of this to say, this contest is far from over – whoever can muster the strongest campaign for the next 32 days will emerge victorious. ◊